Consumers' macroeconomic expectations
综述了消费者对通胀等宏观经济变量预期的测量方法、形成机制及其与消费决策的关系，并探讨了央行沟通如何影响预期，对研究货币政策传导和预期管理的学者有参考价值。
Abstract After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We, thus, survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.