Hello from the Other Side: Both Government Liabilities and Assets Matter for Sovereign Risk
研究发现,在解释发达经济体政府借贷成本时,政府资产和负债同样重要,且政府净值(总资产减负债)比负债本身更能解释债券收益率,而政策讨论往往只关注政府债务。
Abstract We provide evidence that for advanced economies' sovereign bond markets in recent decades, both sides of the government balance sheet matter: for explaining government borrowing cost empirically, (i) government assets are significant in addition to government liabilities, and (ii) it is government net worth (total financial and non‐financial assets less liabilities) rather than government liabilities that matters when both are included. The central country‐specific fiscal factor driving sovereign bond yields thus appears to be government net worth. The focus of policy and academic debates though has tended to be narrowly on government debt, even as government net worth has declined substantially in many OECD countries in recent decades.