Geopolitical Risk and Investment
研究发现，基于新闻的地缘政治风险指数每翻一倍，企业下季度投资会下降样本均值的14%，且对投资不可逆性强或市场势力大的企业影响更大，支持实物期权理论。
Abstract Using a news‐based index of geopolitical risk (GPR), we document a strong negative relationship between firm‐level corporate investment and GPR. When the GPR index doubles, next‐quarter investment declines by 14% of its sample mean. The effect is more pronounced for firms with more irreversible investment or higher market power, confirming the real options theory. However, the effect is less significant for firms with a stronger ability to substitute labor for capital, a higher labor‐to‐capital ratio, or a higher labor share, supporting the convex return theory. Overall, our results suggest that the real options channel dominates the Oi–Hartman–Abel effect.