Tourism Demand Forecasting With Multiple Mixed-Frequency Data: A Reverse Mixed-Data Sampling Method
针对现有模型需预处理低频数据导致预测精度下降的问题，本研究构建了反向混合数据抽样模型，直接使用原始多频率数据，以美国入境旅游为例验证了该方法能提升预测准确性。
Due to the limitations of existing tourism demand forecasting models, data with frequencies lower than those of the tourism demand need to be processed in advance and cannot be directly used in a model, which leads to the loss of timeliness and accuracy in tourism demand forecasting. Taking the inbound tourism of the United States prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, this study systematically examines the impact of data frequency processing on tourism demand modeling and forecasting, through the construction and comparison of three categories of models, with a particular focus on the first developed multiple mixed-frequency specification of reverse mixed-data sampling (RMIDAS) model. The results confirm the positive effect of multiple mixed-frequency models, which can directly use various original data frequencies, in improving the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting. This study also provides important guidance for future research on high-frequency tourism variables forecasting.