When are tax multipliers large?
研究发现美国税收乘数的大小取决于税收变动的方向：增税时的乘数绝对值显著大于减税时，且增税乘数在经济扩张期远大于收缩期，而减税乘数的周期变化较小且不显著。
I show that the US tax multiplier depends on the direction of the tax change. The tax multiplier is significantly larger (in absolute value) for tax hikes than for tax cuts – regardless of whether I identify tax shocks via (i) the narrative approach or (ii) sign restrictions. The tax hike multiplier is strongly pro-cyclical, i.e., substantially larger in expansions. Variation in the tax cut multiplier over the business cycle is milder and statistically insignificant. A simple business cycle model with downward nominal wage rigidities can explain these results.