Quantifying uncertainties in greenhouse gas savings and abatement costs with cellulosic biofuels
研究了纤维素生物燃料在原料产量、土地可用性和炼油转化等环节的不确定性对净温室气体减排和经济效益的影响，发现其比玉米乙醇具有更小且更确定的环境效益和更低的社会成本。
Abstract Cellulosic biofuels from non-food feedstocks, while appealing, continue to encounter uncertainty about their induced land use change (ILUC) effects, net greenhouse gas (GHG) saving potential and their economic costs. We analyse the implications of multiple uncertainties along the biofuel supply chain from feedstock yields, land availability for production to conversion to fuel in the refinery on these outcomes. We find that compared to corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels have a substantially smaller and less uncertain ILUC-related GHG intensity and lead to larger GHG savings at lower welfare costs of abatement, indicating the potential to make robust and substantial contributions to cost-effective climate change mitigation.