On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis
本文探讨了理性预期假设在宏观稳定政策分析中的稳健性、预期是否收敛到理性预期以及收敛速度，发现当政策失误代价最高时，理性预期分析最不稳健且学习最慢。
Abstract In this lecture, I review work addressing three questions. First, are predictions about macro stabilization policies robust to reasonable departures from rational expectations? Second, do people's expectations converge to a particular set of rational expectations? Third, if they do converge, how quickly? I discuss examples from the literature where the answer to the first question is no. The answer to the second question is that learning equilibria converge to the “standard” rational equilibria analyzed in new Keynesian models. Finally, I discuss circumstances under which the answer to the third question is very slowly. In the examples, learning is slowest and policy analysis based on rational expectations is least robust in the face of shocks that render the stakes of getting policy “right” the highest.