The age‐wage‐productivity puzzle: Evidence from the careers of top earners
利用北美职业足球运动员的面板数据，发现工资在生产率达到峰值后仍持续增长多年，直到职业生涯末期才急剧下降，探讨了中年工人看似被高估的原因。
Abstract There is an inverted u‐shaped relationship between age and wages in most labor markets, but the effects of age on productivity are often unclear. We use panel data in a market of high earners, professional footballers (soccer players) in North America, to estimate age‐productivity and age‐wage profiles. We find stark differences; wages increase for several years after productivity has peaked, before dropping sharply at the end of a career. This poses the question: why are middle‐aged workers seemingly overpaid? We investigate a range of possible mechanisms that could be responsible, only finding evidence that tentatively supports a talent discovery theory.