Natural unemployment and activity rates in Italy: flow-based determinants and implications for price dynamics
通过菲利普斯曲线联合估计意大利的自然失业率和自然劳动参与率，发现劳动参与缺口占总劳动力市场松弛的显著份额，并解释了2011年主权债务危机后三分之一缺失的通胀。
Abstract Despite the magnitude and cyclicality of transitions into and out of the labour force, the literature generally considers unemployment as a sufficient statistic of labour market slack. We question this view by jointly estimating natural unemployment and participation rates through a Phillips curve informed by structural labour market flows. Focusing on Italy, a country where flows into and out of the labour force are particularly large, we find that the participation margin accounts for a significant share of total slack and explains one-third of the missing inflation that followed the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis. Exploiting a reform that sharply and unexpectedly increased the statutory retirement age and expanded labour supply without directly affecting unemployment, we confirm that neglecting the participation gap biases inflation forecasts.