Entrepreneurship Lock and the Demand for Health Insurance: Evidence from the US Affordable Care Act
研究发现美国《平价医疗法案》在2015-2016年使有高健康保险需求的人群自雇概率提高1.4-1.8个百分点，但该效应在政策不确定性增加后消失。
Most US workers have health insurance plans sponsored and subsidized by their employers. The US Affordable Care Act (ACA) improved and expanded the availability of non-employer-based health insurance, with protections for pre-existing conditions, guaranteed issue, and community rating in non-group markets. Using National Health Interview Survey data for 2009 to 2018 and a difference-in-differences modeling approach, this study finds that the ACA increased self-employment in 2015 and 2016 among US adults with higher demand for health insurance. The probability of self-employment increased by 1.4 to 1.8 percentage points among adults ages 30 to 64 with at least one pre-ACA declinable condition and no alternative source of health insurance through a spouse’s employer or public programs. However, these effects were short-lived. As uncertainty about the long-term viability of the ACA’s health insurance exchanges increased in 2017 and 2018, the probability of self-employment among individuals with high demand for insurance fell to pre-ACA levels.