Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis?
本文利用14至18世纪9个欧洲经济体的面板数据，通过校准的马尔萨斯模型和β收敛回归，估计了人均收入向稳态收敛的速度，发现不同经济体马尔萨斯陷阱的强度差异显著，瑞典半衰期20年，英格兰约230年。
The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate by estimating the speed of convergence for a panel of 9 preindustrial European economies over a long period of time (14th–18th century). The analysis relies on a calibrated Malthusian model for England and β -convergence regressions. I find evidence of significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap between preindustrial European economies. The strongest estimated Malthusian trap is in Sweden, with a half-life of 20 years. The weakest estimated Malthusian trap is in England, with a half-life of about 230 years. This implies that some preindustrial economies were able to experience prolonged variations in their standards of living after a shock, while still being subject to Malthusian stagnation in the long run.