Towards a systemic view on rebound effects: Modelling the feedback loops of rebound mechanisms
本文通过因果回路图建模26种反弹机制，发现反弹效应源于强化循环或平衡反应，帮助理解并管理资源消耗中的反弹现象。
Rebound Effects (RE) are systemic responses that are relentlessly hindering the achievement of sustainability actions’ intended effects. Despite the wide recognition of RE, the limited understanding of the underlying causal structures sustaining their occurrence hampers the ability to anticipate, prevent, and tackle them. To explore how feedback thinking can explain the occurrence of RE, this paper describes the structure of 26 rebound mechanisms based on qualitative system dynamics (SD) modelling using causal loop diagrams (CLD). Apart from a comprehensive catalogue of mechanisms, the elicitation of two generic rebound mechanisms reveals that RE are either the result of (1) reinforcing loops acting against quick fixes to control local resource consumption or (2) balancing reactions in the opposite direction of attempts to control local resource consumption leading to escalation behaviour. Four contributions highlight how this research supports a systemic view on RE, the natural evolutionary step required to understand and manage its occurrence.