Energy shocks and inflation episodes in the UK
研究近期全球能源冲击对英国经济的宏观影响，认为由于制度变化（如集体工资谈判弱化），当前通胀对整体经济影响有限，因此货币政策干预需求不大。开发了新宏观计量预测模型模拟反事实政策情景。
This paper explores the potential macroeconomic impacts of the recent episode of global energy shock in the UK economy. Unlike the Great Inflation in the 1970s, current inflation is likely to have limited impacts on the overall UK economy due to institutional changes, such as the weakening of collective wage bargaining, etc. As a result, we argue that the current episode of inflation requires limited interventions using monetary policies. A new macro-econometric forecasting model is developed for the UK economy to simulate counterfactual policy scenarios.