Tail Risk in Production Networks
研究了非线性生产网络中经济对大型冲击的反应，提出尾部中心度衡量部门系统性风险，发现互联性增加会降低对小冲击的敏感度但提高对大冲击的敏感度。
This paper describes the response of the economy to large shocks in a nonlinear production network. A sector's tail centrality measures how a large negative shock transmits to GDP, that is, the systemic risk of the sector. Tail centrality is theoretically and empirically very different from local centrality measures such as sales share—in a benchmark case, it is measured as a sector's average downstream closeness to final production. It also measures how large differences in sector productivity can generate cross‐country income differences. The paper also uses the results to analyze the determinants of total tail risk in the economy. Increases in interconnectedness can simultaneously reduce the sensitivity of the economy to small shocks while increasing the sensitivity to large shocks. Tail risk is related to conditional granularity , where some sectors become highly influential following negative shocks.