Dynamic (Mis)allocation of Investments in Solar Energy
研究了太阳能光伏投资的时间序列是否成本最优，发现法国2005-2021年的实际投资路径比最优路径成本高出约30%，住宅太阳能应推迟七年，中大型项目应提前三到四年。
Because they differ in terms of technology, size, and location, solar photovoltaic installations exhibit very heterogeneous levelized costs of producing electricity. Therefore, the present value cost of meeting a given trajectory of annual solar energy production depends on which projects are commissioned when: the observed sequence of investment decisions need not be cost-efficient. We propose a methodology to assess the magnitude of dynamic misallocation by comparing the present value cost of realized investments to a counterfactual optimal sequence of investments. Applying our methodology to France between 2005 and 2021, we find that the observed trajectory of annual solar output could have been produced at a present value cost about 30% lower than its realized value. Our optimized counterfactual suggests that investments in residential solar should have on average been postponed by seven years, while investments in medium- and large-scale installations should have occurred three to four years earlier.