SME default prediction: A systematic methodology-focused review
系统梳理了1972年至2023年初145篇中小企业违约预测研究，总结了估计方法、样本再平衡、变量选择、验证方法及变量使用情况，发现超三分之一研究未用特征选择、超四分之一仅用样本内验证，建议使用特征选择和留出样本或交叉验证。
This study reviews the methodologies used in the literature to predict failure in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).We identified 145 SMEs' default prediction studies from 1972 to early 2023.We summarized the methods used in each study.The focus points are estimation methods, sample re-balancing methods, variable selection techniques, validation methods, and variables included in the literature.More than 1,200 factors used in failure prediction models have been identified, along with 54 unique feature selection techniques and 80 unique estimation methods.Over one-third of the studies do not use any feature selection method, and more than one-quarter use only in-sample validation.Our main recommendation for researchers is to use feature selection and validate results using hold-out samples or crossvalidation.As an avenue for further research, we suggest in-depth empirical comparisons of estimation methods, feature selection techniques, and sample re-balancing methods based on some large and commonly used datasets.