Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?
研究专业预测者的通胀和失业率预测是否与菲利普斯曲线理论一致，发现存在很大异质性，且理论一致性在短期预测中更准确，长期则主要解释预测分歧。
The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets. Theory consistency is related to more accurate forecasts at the shortest horizon but not significantly so at longer horizons. At longer horizons PC-model heterogeneity accounts for the lion’s share of the observed disagreement in reported inflation forecasts.