Oil and Petroleum Product Armington Elasticities: A New-Geography-of-Trade Approach to Estimation
利用贸易地理文献的结构发展，通过固定效应引力回归估计了六种原油等级和七种精炼产品的区域品种替代弹性，发现估计值高于文献常用值，表明石油贸易模式可能比先前预测的滞后性更小。
Exploiting the structural developments suggested by the geography-of-trade literature, we estimate the elasticity of substitution across regional varieties for six crude grades and seven refined products using fixed-effects gravity regressions. We use unique data, compiled by Al-Qahtani (2008), that include global coverage of bilateral trade and transport costs for the crude grades and refined products. We find that the point estimates of elasticities of substitution across import varieties exceed those commonly reported in the literature and those adopted in simulation analysis. Our estimates indicate that there may be far less hysteresis in the pattern of petroleum trade than previously forecast.