The sectoral trade losses from financial crises
研究2008-2009年危机引发的“大贸易崩溃”，分析41个新兴市场在1980-2019年间不同金融危机（债务、银行、货币危机）对不同类型贸易（消费品、中间品、资本品、商业服务）的因果动态影响，发现总贸易长期下滑主要由中间品和资本品下降驱动，而消费品和商业服务更具韧性。
Abstract The “Great Trade Collapse” triggered by the 2008-2009 crisis calls for a careful assessment of the trade losses from financial crises. We adopt a more detailed perspective by looking at the response of different types of trade (i.e. consumption, intermediate, capital goods, and business services) following various types of financial crises (i.e. debt, banking, and currency crises) in 41 emerging markets. Estimations performed in the 1980-2019 period using a combination of impact assessment and local projections to capture a causal dynamic effect running from financial crises to the trade activity show that the collapse of total trade is long-lasting and mainly driven by the fall of intermediate goods and to some extent capital goods, while trade in consumption goods and business services is more resilient to crises. Therefore, financial crises could lead to considerable disruption of global value chains, as observed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and easily spill over from one country to another through trade linkages. The examination of heterogeneity reveals that total and sectoral trade is more severely impacted in countries with a lower share of manufacturing exports, less diversified exported products, and trading partners, with lower demand from trading partners and when associated with a deterioration of the domestic and external financial conditions and sudden stops. By contributing to the understanding of the trade effects of financial crises, our analysis provides insightful support for the design and implementation of policies aimed at coping with these effects.