荷兰病再探讨:理论与证据的一致性

The Dutch disease revisited: consistency of theory and evidence

Environmental & Resource Economics · 2023
被引 13
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

构建了一个考虑技术进步溢出不均的模型,并用动态面板方法分析资源繁荣对实际汇率和部门增长的影响,发现资源贫富国家存在显著差异。

Abstract

Abstract The Dutch disease literature reveals several gaps between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions. To bridge such gaps, I develop a model that accounts for uneven spillovers of technological progress from the resource sector to other domestic sectors. I then employ a dynamic panel approach to align the theory with the data. I find that the real exchange rate appreciation resulting from a resource boom (i.e., the spending channel) is more pronounced in resource-poor countries than in resource-rich countries. Additionally, the resource movement channel exhibits differences between resource-rich and resource-poor countries. In resource-rich countries, a resource boom reduces the growth rate in the manufacturing sector more than in the service sector, leading to a decrease in relative sectoral output and a slowdown in economic growth. On the other hand, in resource-poor countries, a resource boom accelerates the growth of the manufacturing sector and decelerates the growth of the service sector, resulting in an increase in relative sectoral output and economic growth.

荷兰病资源繁荣部门溢出效应实际汇率