Renewable technology adoption costs and economic growth
研究了快速技术进步下早期采纳可再生能源导致的资本报废成本，发现碳税与促进可再生能源的政策是互补而非替代关系，同时实施可带来1.4%的福利增益。
In the presence of rapid technological progress, early technology adoption may result in large capital replacement costs. We develop an analytical Integrated Assessment Model that incorporates endogenous scrapping costs resulting from new technology adoption in renewable energy, as well as externalities associated with carbon emissions and renewable technology spillovers. We use our calibrated model to investigate the effects of the scrapping channel on renewable technology adoption and on the optimal energy transition. In the absence of a Pigouvian carbon tax, a second-best policy that incentivizes renewables through internalizing spillovers provides relatively small benefits and can even be detrimental to short-run growth. In contrast, the reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting from internalizing technology spillovers is significantly larger if the Pigouvian tax is also in place. Comparing the status quo to the scenario where both policies are implemented results in a consumption-equivalent welfare gain of 1.4 percent. Our findings suggest that, in the presence of scrapping costs resulting from rapid technological progress, some caution might be warranted before concluding that direct subsidies are a suitable substitute for a Pigouvian carbon tax. When it comes to social welfare, carbon taxes and policies that promote renewables by eliminating spillover externalities are best thought of as complements rather than substitutes. • We use an Analytical Integrated Assessment Model to study the optimal energy transition. • We incorporate scrapping costs resulting from new renewable technology adoption. • At the optimum, such costs discourage heavy early investment in renewable energy capital. • As renewables become more productive, it becomes efficient to invest more in renewables. • Carbon taxes and policies that promote renewables are complementary.