Flood Risk Perceptions: Accuracy, Determinants, and the Role of Probability Weighting
研究美国东海岸房主洪水风险感知的准确性及影响因素，发现洪水经历、担忧和洪水区划影响相对风险感知，但概率加权函数无法解释感知偏差，表明偏差源于对真实风险的误解而非行为启发式。
<h3>Abstract</h3> This study analyzes survey data of US east coast homeowners to characterize accuracy and determinants of homeowner flood risk (mis)perceptions. Using an array of instruments, we assess subjective risk perceptions and compare them to objective risk estimates. Reduced-form regressions suggest flood experience, worry, and flood zone classification influence relative perceptions of risk. Common probability weighting functions do not fit the divergence in risk perceptions, suggesting that the source of the probability distortions is most likely due to misperceiving the true risk rather than a widespread behavioral heuristic.