Predicting corporate restructuring and financial distress in banks: The case of the Swiss banking industry
研究了2007-2017年274家瑞士银行的数据，用逻辑回归和贝叶斯推断找出影响银行退出、并购及财务困境的关键因素，发现总资产和净息差是关键指标，苏黎世地区的银行更易退出或被收购。
Abstract The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 is widely regarded as the worst since the Great Depression and threatened the global financial system with a total collapse. This article distinguishes itself from the vast literature of bankruptcy, bank failure, and bank exit prediction models by introducing novel categorical parameters inspired by Switzerland's banking landscape. We evaluate data from 274 banks in Switzerland from 2007 to 2017 using generalized linear model logit and multinomial logit regressions and examine the determinants of corporate restructuring and financial distress. We complement our results with a robustness test via a Bayesian inference framework. We find that total assets and net interest margin affect bank exit and mergers and acquisitions, and that banks operating in the Zurich area have a higher likelihood of exiting and becoming takeover targets relative to banks operating in the Geneva area.