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Page之后70年累积和序列变点检验的现状

The state of cumulative sum sequential changepoint testing 70 years after Page

Biometrika · 2023
被引 29 · 同刊同年前 1%
ABS 4

中文导读

回顾了Page在1954年提出的累积和控制图在变点监测中的发展,重点介绍非参数在线变点检验,这些检验旨在控制第一类错误而非最小化平均运行长度,适用于经济学和统计学交叉领域。

Abstract

Abstract Quality control charts aim at raising an alarm as soon as sequentially obtained observations of an underlying random process no longer seem to be within stochastic fluctuations prescribed by an in-control scenario. Such random processes can often be modelled using the concept of stationarity, or even independence as in most classical works. An important out-of-control scenario is the changepoint alternative, for which the distribution of the process changes at an unknown point in time. In his seminal 1954 Biometrika paper, E. S. Page introduced the famous cumulative sum control charts for changepoint monitoring. Innovatively, decision rules based on cumulative sum procedures took the full history of the process into account, whereas previous procedures were based only on a fixed and typically small number of the most recent observations. The extreme case of using only the most recent observation, often referred to as the Shewhart chart, is more akin to serial outlier than changepoint detection. Page’s cumulative sum approach, introduced seven decades ago, is ubiquitous in modern changepoint analysis, and his original paper has led to a multitude of follow-up papers in different research communities. This review is focused on a particular subfield of this research, namely nonparametric sequential, or online, changepoint tests that are constructed to maintain a desired Type-1 error as opposed to the more traditional approach seeking to minimize the average run length of the procedures. Such tests have originated at the intersection of econometrics and statistics. We trace the development of these tests and highlight their properties, mostly using a simple location model for clarity of exposition, but we also review more complex situations such as regression and time series models.

统计学计量经济学质量控制非参数统计时间序列分析