Do Financial Markets Respond to Populist Rhetoric?
研究领导人批评央行并要求降息的政治评论对六国汇率、债券收益率和风险溢价的影响,发现土耳其市场反应显著且随时间增强,其他国家汇率波动也受影响。
Abstract With the global rise in populism over the last decade, there has been an increase in political commentaries (PC) by leaders that criticize their central banks and argue for lower interest rates. We analyse the effects of PCs on exchange rates, bond yields, and the risk premium for six countries that are subject to political pressures. Utilizing a specification with time‐varying parameters, we show that PCs affect the level and the volatility of exchange rates, bond yields and the risk premium in Turkey. The response increases over time. In other countries, there is a significant impact on exchange rate volatility.