A panel vector autoregression analysis for the dynamics of medical and long‐term care expenditures
使用面板向量自回归模型分析日本某城市老年人月度数据，发现医疗与长期护理支出存在从昂贵急性医疗向居家医疗再到居家护理的动态转移，并探讨了正式长期护理部门对总成本抑制的作用。
Although medical and long-term care expenditures for older adults are closely related, providing rigorous statistical analysis for their dynamic relationship is challenging. In this research, we propose a novel approach using the panel vector autoregression model to reveal the realized patterns of the interdependence. As an empirical application, we analyze monthly panel data on individuals in a city of Japan, where social insurance covers many formal services for long-term care. Our estimation results indicate the existence of intertemporal transition from expensive acute medical care to reasonable at-home medical care, then to at-home long-term care. Under this context, the enhancement of formal long-term care sector in Japan might have played an important role in the suppression of the total care cost in spite for its rapid aging over the past 2 decades. Additionally, we find that daycare plays multiple roles in Japanese long-term care, such as respite and rehabilitation, but there is no considerable transition from outpatient rehabilitation to daycare in the long-term care sector.