Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion
研究意大利2004-2016年数据发现，失业率上升时生育率和堕胎率都下降，说明生育率变化不仅来自计划怀孕减少，也来自堕胎增加，且主要影响25岁以上女性。
I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. The findings indicate that both childbearing and abortions behave pro-cyclically, thus suggesting that changes in fertility rates arise not just from changes in planned pregnancy but also from a higher incidence of abortions. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35-49 age group, while younger women are largely unaffected.