IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT POLICIES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE UNDER THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK
以湖北省2020年4月政策包试点为自然实验，用合成控制和合成双重差分法估计政府支持政策对经济韧性的影响，发现政策使试点省份平均经济韧性提高0.062，机制包括房地产投资、消费刺激和核心产业发展。
Using the policy package pilot implemented in Hubei Province, China, in April 2020 as a natural experiment, we use the synthetic control (SC) and synthetic difference in differences (SDID) methods to estimate the impact of the Chinese government’s support policy on the economic resilience and to analyze the mechanisms by which it impacts. This study finds that the policy package has contributed to the growth of economic resilience in the pilot provinces, with the policy package increasing the average economic resilience of the pilot provinces by 0.062 compared to their potential resilience. The validity and robustness of the above conclusions are objectively confirmed by multidimensional quantitative outcomes such as placebo tests, ranking tests, and replacements in calculating resilience. The mechanism analysis shows that the investment in real estate development, the stimulus for consumption, and the core industry development are virtual channels for the policy package to promote economic resilience growth in the pilot provinces. Moreover, traditional investment in transportation fixed assets plays a minor role. This paper quantitatively corroborates the academic idea that government governance capacity affects regional economic resilience (RER), and research can provide empirical support for regional economic recovery and policy support under a major crisis.