The rise and fall of paper money in Yuan China, 1260–1368
研究元朝从银本位转向纸币法定货币的过程，发现战争（尤其是内战）导致财政压力进而引发货币超发和通胀，而自然灾害和赏赐则无此影响。
Abstract Following the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime to introduce a precious metal standard and deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, prices, warfare, imperial grants, taxation, natural disasters, and population, we find that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted. We show that inflation was high in the early and late periods of the dynasty but remained moderate for nearly half a century. We find that military pressure, particularly civil war, generated fiscal demands that led to the over‐issuance of money. By contrast, natural disasters and imperial grants did not trigger the over‐issue of money. Warfare was much more likely to increase paper money issues under the fiat standard than during the silver standard period.