Machine Learning as a Tool for Hypothesis Generation
提出一种利用机器学习从高维数据中生成关于人类行为的新假设的系统性方法，并以法官保释决策为例，发现仅凭面部照片就能解释一半的可预测变异，进而生成可解释且新颖的假设。
Abstract While hypothesis testing is a highly formalized activity, hypothesis generation remains largely informal. We propose a systematic procedure to generate novel hypotheses about human behavior, which uses the capacity of machine learning algorithms to notice patterns people might not. We illustrate the procedure with a concrete application: judge decisions about whom to jail. We begin with a striking fact: the defendant’s face alone matters greatly for the judge’s jailing decision. In fact, an algorithm given only the pixels in the defendant’s mug shot accounts for up to half of the predictable variation. We develop a procedure that allows human subjects to interact with this black-box algorithm to produce hypotheses about what in the face influences judge decisions. The procedure generates hypotheses that are both interpretable and novel: they are not explained by demographics (e.g., race) or existing psychology research, nor are they already known (even if tacitly) to people or experts. Though these results are specific, our procedure is general. It provides a way to produce novel, interpretable hypotheses from any high-dimensional data set (e.g., cell phones, satellites, online behavior, news headlines, corporate filings, and high-frequency time series). A central tenet of our article is that hypothesis generation is a valuable activity, and we hope this encourages future work in this largely “prescientific” stage of science.