Local employment multipliers for large publicly subsidized firms: Evidence from a synthetic control approach
使用合成控制加权双重差分法，估计大型公共补贴企业对本地就业的乘数效应，发现估计值高度不确定，制造业设施的正乘数较集中，但与补贴金额关联不大。
Abstract This paper provides estimates of local employment multipliers from large, publicly subsidized firms. We use a synthetic control weighted difference‐in‐difference estimation procedure that matches treated areas with comparison areas to generate local employment multiplier estimates. We show that local employment multiplier estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, with a wide range of point estimates (both positive and negative) and varying degrees of statistical significance. There is a concentration of positive employment multipliers from manufacturing facilities, but little correlation between estimated multipliers and subsidy value. We demonstrate that our approach produces drastically different results than a traditional difference‐in‐difference approach.