A rising tide? The local incidence of the second wave of globalization
研究了1970年代美国进出口大幅增长对地方劳动力市场的短期和长期影响，发现净就业效应在初期为正但长期不显著，出口冲击引发的迁入远大于进口冲击引发的迁出，这主要源于住房供给弹性的不对称。
We estimate the short- and long-run local labor market impacts of the large increase in U.S. imports and exports that occurred over the 1970s. We exploit the sequential opening of overseas shipping container ports over the period, which generated export and import shocks that were largely non-overlapping across U.S. labor markets thereby providing substantial variation to distinguish their effects. We find that the average net impact on the employment-to-population ratio was positive and concentrated in the initial decade, with little longer-run impact. At the same time, in-migration due to the export shock greatly exceeded out-migration due to the import shock. We show that these different migration responses were largely due to asymmetry in the housing supply curve. The largest gains accrued to residents of labor markets that simultaneously experienced a relatively large export shock, had a relatively low housing supply elasticity, and had a relatively high home-ownership rate.