Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity
构建了一个量化理论模型，分析人们在社交活动带来的感染风险与收益之间的权衡，并利用葡萄牙COVID-19前三波疫情期间年轻人和老年人的消费支出微观面板数据验证模型，强调预期在塑造行为与疫情动态中的关键作用。
This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the effects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro panel dataset on consumption expenditures of young and older people across the first three waves of COVID-19 in Portugal. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.