Disease and development—The predicted mortality instrument revisited
重新审视Acemoglu-Johnson的预测死亡率工具，利用历史疾病死亡率数据构建多个版本，验证其对预期寿命的预测力，并发现预期寿命对人口和出生率有正向影响、对人均GDP有负向影响。
Abstract This paper revisits Acemoglu‐Johnson the predicted mortality instrument. Drawing on a unique historical data set of disease‐specific mortality rates, we reconstruct several versions of the instrument that differ in terms of data usage and instrument relevance. Our findings confirm its predictive power on life expectancy. The replication analysis reveals a significant positive second‐stage effect of life expectancy on population and total birth rates and a negative effect on GDP per capita for a subset of the revised instruments. Overall, data coverage and empirical tests suggest the superiority of our country‐level instrument.