Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?
扩展了一个半结构模型,用于识别和估计家庭对暂时性收入冲击的动态消费弹性。利用家庭调查数据,发现房地产繁荣结束后边际消费倾向出现结构性断裂,平均消费倾向显著上升,且主要由低流动性财富的房主短期消费弹性增加驱动,与借贷约束收紧一致。
Summary We extend a widely used semi‐structural model to identify and estimate dynamic consumption elasticities with respect to transitory income shocks. Applying our model to household survey data, we find a structural break in marginal propensities to consume following the end of the housing market boom, with the average across households increasing significantly. There is important heterogeneity by different household balance sheet characteristics, and the increase in the average appears to be driven by higher short‐run consumption elasticities for homeowners with low liquid wealth. The change in consumption behavior is consistent with tighter borrowing constraints more than a shift in wealth distributions.