A behavioral gap in survival beliefs
研究个体在形成生存信念时如何受乐观与悲观情绪影响，发现年轻人低估、老年人高估生存概率，并用欧洲健康与退休调查数据验证了模型。
Abstract Life span uncertainty (longevity risk) impacts several economic decisions. Individuals can form and revise their survival beliefs making use of behavioral heuristics. We propose a model of sentiment, in which individuals are assumed to switch between optimistic and pessimistic expectations of their health. When optimism is persistent in the face of health shocks, or when individuals are more likely to change their sentiment from pessimistic to optimistic than otherwise, our model predicts survival underestimation at young ages and overestimation at old ages. An empirical analysis based on the longitudinal data from Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe validates our model.