GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix
利用GDE和GDI不同年份数据的协整关系及月度发布日历，构建更及时准确的美国总产出指标，并发现修订后的GDE估计精度更高、权重更大，但早期估计仍有影响。
We use the information in the successive vintages of GDE and GDI to obtain an improved timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures taking seriously their monthly release calendar. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, did not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. Our results suggest that revised GDE estimates, unlike GDI ones, are increasingly precise and receive higher weights, but early estimates retain some influence.