The Introduction of the Income Tax, Fiscal Capacity, and Migration: Evidence from US States
利用1900-2010年美国各州面板数据，发现引入所得税短期内人均收入增加12%，但长期因中高收入家庭迁往无所得税州而抵消部分效果。
We evaluate how fiscal capacity and migration respond to the introduction of the individual income tax, drawing on new panel data on US states from 1900 to 2010. We find that the introduction of the income tax increased revenue per capita by 12 percent in the short term, 15 percent in the medium term, and 17 percent in the long term. The absolute level of revenue, however, did not significantly change over the long term for post–World War II adopters. To explain this, we show that the introduction of the income tax induced significant outmigration to non-income-tax states by middle- and high-earning households.