Fighting Crime in Lawless Areas: Evidence from Slums in Rio de Janeiro
利用里约热内卢2008年启动的贫民窟安抚计划，研究发现该政策降低了谋杀和抢劫率，但显著增加了袭击和威胁率，原因在于执法削弱了帮派提供的安保服务，并可能促使罪犯从重罪转向轻罪。
We use Rio de Janeiro’s slum pacification program initiated in 2008 to analyze the effect of policies targeting crime in lawless areas. We correct the bias from the unobserved rise in crime reporting via the use of a proxy variable and bounded variation assumptions. We find that the program reduced the murder and robbery rates but strongly increased the assault and threat rates. We explain these results by providing evidence that increased enforcement weakened the security service that gangs provide on their turf, and may incentivize criminals to switch from serious to less serious crimes.