Has the war in Ukraine changed Europeans’ preferences on refugee policy? Evidence from a panel experiment in Germany, Hungary and Poland
利用乌克兰战争前后在德国、波兰和匈牙利进行的面板联合实验，发现三国对难民政策偏好的变化不同：德国无变化，匈牙利温和变化，波兰显著变化，但三国均最看重难民自由进入劳动力市场。
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 resulted in the largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. Using a unique panel conjoint experiment on refugee policy preferences carried out in Germany, Poland and Hungary just before and after the onset of the war in Ukraine, we show a heterogenous response to the influx of refugees from Ukraine across the three countries: no change of policy preferences in Germany, moderate change in Hungary and a significant change in Poland. Our results have direct implications for the development of a common EU asylum policy, as even though the countries persistently diverge on the preferred mode of asylum seekers' allocation, with Germans favouring relocation and Poland and Hungary the status quo, the results highlight the scope for consensus rooted in shared preference for the asylum seekers' unrestricted access to the labour market. This dimension consistently emerges as the most important policy dimension in all three countries before and after the outbreak of war.