The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area
通过模型分析欧元区经济与银行业，发现有序转型可减少碳排放并支持经济增长，而无序转型则损害经济与金融稳定；企业预期影响低碳投资决策。
We analyse the double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area economy and banking sector. First, by tailoring the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent behavioural model, we provide a dynamic balance sheet assessment of the Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios. We find that an orderly transition achieves early co-benefits by reducing CO2 emissions (12% less in 2040 than in 2020) while supporting growth in economic output. In contrast, a disorderly transition worsens the economic performance and financial stability of the euro area. Further, in a disorderly transition with higher physical risks, real GDP decreases by 12.5% in 2050 relative to an orderly transition. Second, by extending the concept of climate sentiments, we analyse how firms’ expectations about climate policy credibility affect investment decisions in high or low-carbon goods. Firms that trust an orderly policy introduction and anticipate the carbon tax switch earlier to low-carbon investments. This, in turn, accelerates economic decarbonization and decreases the risk of carbon-stranded assets for investors. Our results highlight the crucial role of early and credible climate policies to signal investment decisions in the low-carbon transition.