Vaccination policy and mortality from COVID-19 in the European Union
利用2021年26个欧盟国家的周度数据，通过双机器学习方法估计疫苗接种对COVID-19死亡率的动态影响，发现每百人累计接种剂量增加10个百分点，八周内每百万人可避免26.41例死亡，死亡率平均降低约50%。
Summary This paper estimates the dynamic effect of vaccination on mortality from COVID-19 using weekly data from 26 European Union countries during 2021. Our analysis relies on the double machine learning method to control for multiple confounders, including nonpharmaceutical interventions, climate variables, mobility factors, variants of concern, country- and week-specific shocks. In our baseline specification, we show that a 10 percentage point increase in cumulative doses per hundred inhabitants averts 5.08 COVID-19 deaths per million inhabitants at the eight-week horizon and 26.41 deaths in the eight-week time window considered. The average reduction in mortality in this window is close to 50%. Further estimates reveal that the effect of doses administered to adults aged 18–59 does not statistically differ from that of doses received by people aged 60 and over. Finally, vaccine-specific estimates document that mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca) are more cost-effective in saving lives than Comirnaty (Pfizer), while we are unable to demonstrate any effect of Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson).