The international dimension of trend inflation
使用趋势周期BVAR分解，研究全球化、预期、自动化等慢速趋势如何影响趋势通胀的缓慢变动，发现国际成本推动因素使通胀低于目标，且通胀波动日益受国际因素驱动。
A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends – i.e., globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply – in shaping the slow-moving dynamics of trend inflation. Despite well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported "cost-push" factors induced disinflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence of inflation volatility increasingly driven by international factors. These results can explain why, from 2000 in the U.S. and before the recent surge, inflation remained both below target and silent to domestic slack.