Integrated system dynamics modeling and optimization for artisanal and small-scale gold supply chains
针对秘鲁手工和小规模金矿，建立系统动力学模型分析供应链及汞和天然气供应商的相互作用，提出加入氰化物加工设施并通过混合整数规划优化矿工向设施出售矿石的过渡计划，使利润提升22%。
We address artisanal and small-scale gold mining in Peru. Using the data collected through field visits, we develop a System Dynamics (SD) model to examine the current operations of the gold supply chain, and its interplay with mercury and gas suppliers. The current mining operations cause potential health and environmental issues, due to high mercury usage, and other issues (e.g., safety issues). As a potential solution to overcome such problems, we consider incorporating a cyanide processing facility into the SD model, where we examine the amount of ore that a miner would be willing to sell to the facility under several payback scenarios. We formulate a mixed-integer programming model that prescribes the optimal transition plan of a miner from local production to selling their ore to the facility within a time horizon that maximizes a miner’s profit. The optimal solution provides a 22% improvement in the miners’ profit over that of their current operations. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to test the sensitivity of the optimal solution to the changes in several input parameters. We discuss that the solution is most sensitive to the gold price changes and the least sensitive to the local production cost changes.