Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighborhood
研究了经济制裁如何影响被制裁国邻国的贸易流动，发现总体上制裁会减少邻国贸易，但部分国家因机会主义行为反而出现贸易增长。
We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with sanctioned states. According to trade models, sanctions are expected to reduce trade flows, as they disrupt established trading routes and economic relationships with suppliers and customers. However, there may also be instances in which countries circumvent trade restrictions by clandestinely exchanging goods with sanctioned countries across the border and trading on their behalf, which leads to an increase in imports and/or exports. To shed light on this issue, we employ a combination of large-N panel data analysis and comparative case studies using the synthetic control method. We find that, in the aggregate, neighboring countries experience economic costs as sanctions disrupt trade. Yet case studies uncover heterogeneity in countries’ responses, with some exhibiting an increase in trade flows. Possible explanations for these different outcomes include opportunistic behavior and increased costs.