Changes in Analysts’ Accrual-Related Forecast Optimism after the Disappearance of the Accrual Anomaly
研究了应计异象消失后分析师对应计项目的预测乐观情绪是否持续，发现乐观情绪在无异象时期依然存在，尤其当分析师激励与乐观情绪一致时（如高外部融资公司），但在激励较低或分析师更了解应计信息时（如发布现金流预测）会减弱。
ABSTRACT We investigate changes in analysts’ accrual-related forecast optimism after the disappearance of the accrual anomaly. We find that such optimism persists in the no-anomaly period, particularly when analysts’ incentives are aligned with greater optimism (i.e., for firms with high external financing). By contrast, the accrual-related forecast optimism declines when analysts’ incentives for optimism are low and in circumstances where analysts would have been more aware of accruals information after the anomaly became publicized (i.e., when analysts issued a cash flow forecast). These findings suggest that analysts’ incentives can offset forecast improvements that their heightened accrual awareness would otherwise allow. They also highlight the importance of considering both analysts’ incentives and knowledge when interpreting their forecasts. Data Availability: Data are available from sources identified in the text. JEL Classifications: G14; G29; M41.