绿色能源与常规能源系统性风险的共性

Commonality in systemic risk from green and conventional energy

Energy Economics · 2024
被引 21
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究了常规能源(油气、原油生产等)和绿色能源(可再生能源)子行业的系统性风险与共性,发现绿色能源风险自2006年下降,且传染性低于常规能源,但危机时常规能源因羊群效应传染更低,两者风险共性温和,为政策制定者2050年净零排放目标提供参考。

Abstract

Our study is a novel attempt to examine the sub-industry sectors of conventional energy (i.e., oil & gas, crude production, oil refinery & marketing, and oil equipment and services) and the sub-industry sector of green energy (i.e., renewable energy) to analyse the systemic risk and commonality. The results show that the systemic risk for green energy has decreased since 2006, indicating a shift towards net-zero emissions. Further, we develop a systemic contagion index (SCI) for green and conventional energy. The SCI shows that green energy has lower contagion than conventional energy. However, conventional energy appears to create lower contagion during crises, indicating its herding characteristics and investors' preference for conventional energy during crises. A mild systemic risk commonality between green and conventional energy provides an opportunity to shift towards green energy, thus enhancing the possibility of achieving net-zero emissions. These findings provide guidance to policymakers to build the global green and conventional energy policy to achieve net-zero emissions in 2050.

系统性风险绿色能源传统能源传染指数