Growth at risk from climate change
研究气候变化如何增加经济活动严重收缩的风险，通过分位数回归发现温度对经济增长下行风险的影响很大且稳健，表明气候变化可能使经济收缩更频繁、更严重，从而影响经济和金融稳定。
Abstract How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.