THE COST OF TRADE DISRUPTIONS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
研究1850-2000年西班牙和英国在不同发展阶段贸易中断的影响，发现贸易开放度和生产率差距决定冲击大小，当前贸易中断的成本远高于两次世界大战期间。
Abstract We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two‐country, three‐sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade openness and the productivity gap between countries. A trade collapse today (more openness, less gap) comparable to the Inter‐War Trade Collapse (IWTC) decreases the capital stock threefold (12% instead of 4%) and lifetime consumption fourfold (1.58% instead of 0.37%). Capital accumulation amplifies the cost of trade disruptions. The IWTC promoted Spanish industrialization, while the opposite would be true today.