Can revenue index insurance outperform yield index insurance?
研究比较了区域收入指数保险与区域产量指数保险在加纳的表现，发现收入保险在降低基差风险、提高需求和促进先进投入采用方面更有效，但并非在所有情况下都优于产量保险。
Abstract Index insurance programs in developing countries have focused almost entirely on agricultural production risk (i.e., yield) while largely avoiding output marketing risk (i.e., price). This omission may miss an important constraint on smallholder investment and may partially explain underwhelming demand for yield‐based insurance policies. Here, we explore the viability of an area‐revenue index insurance policy and how its performance may compare to that of an area‐yield index insurance policy. Using data from Ghana, we estimate reduced‐form regression analysis and calibrate a simulation model, generating several important results. We show that there is a negative correlation between farm investment and covariate price risk. Moreover, our simulation predicts that in many market contexts, area‐revenue index insurance suffers from less basis risk, exhibits higher demand, and is more effective at crowding in advanced input adoption compared to area‐yield index insurance. Our results also demonstrate important contexts in which area‐yield index insurance outperforms area‐revenue index insurance. We therefore find that revenue insurance may be a valuable and impactful product in Ghana but would not outperform area‐yield index insurance in all contexts.